2022 will go down as one of
the craziest years on record. peace on our continent has been shut down crypto obviously right now getting crushed imploded wiping out trillions of dollars in value
Elon agreed then reneged then bought Twitter again and we saw possibly the most insane fraud of
all time in FTX so what comes next will Tech come roaring back will crypto die off forever it's
hard to believe but 2023 will be even crazier than last year I'm a Silicon Valley based venture
capitalist and part of my job is to anticipate the next big thing here's my predictions for the
10 biggest things we have to pay attention to in 2023 starting with FTX which set off the chain
reaction in crypto we saw a coin value plummet immediately billions of dollars taken out of
binance and coinbase by consumers in various companies and funds go under as their assets were
frozen on FTX and while crypto enthusiasts were quick to point out the limits of the contagion in
2023 we'll see the beginnings of a crypto Ice Age that's longer and deeper than any crypto winter
before regardless of what you think of crypto as a technical Marvel greed has been the killer app
fueling kryptos meteoric rise and the deflation of this runs so much deeper than just FTX interest
in D5 will slow to a crawl a lot of the virtual wallet companies will recede into the background
and the crypto companies that survive will focus on Niche but real utilities like digital art or
find ways to serve traditional web 2 companies but for many of the mainstream outside of crypto the
FTX crash May ultimately be most remembered for what it revealed about our media Sam banquetfried
is neither a Visionary nor a criminal mastermind he is a human who made the same poor choice
that generations of money managers have made before him are you effing King no well the media
is supposed to be a check on Authority and power it's becoming ever clear that consumers are
going to have to play a more active role in seeking the truth in the years to come and it's
also becoming clear that social media may not be coming to the rescue Facebook is sliding into
a relevance for Gen Z while Zuck is betting the future of the company and tens of billions of
dollars on a speculative vision of VR meanwhile Twitter is being carved up by Elon and creators
are looking for an exit door and yet this chaos is a ladder for Consumer startups looking at the
App Store in the US today four of the top six free apps are new from startups all focusing on a new
game-changing technology called generative AI if you've logged into any social media platform
you've probably seen pictures of your friends reimagined as princesses astronauts or anime
characters apps like lensa use generative AI to machine render digital portraits based on uploaded
selfies but this is just scratching the surface of what's possible with generative AI machines are
creating 3D flybys just from static 2D pictures and even allowing people to automatically generate
music videos or entire Virtual Worlds just from a text prompt and through chat GPT machines are even
writing College admission essays and translating text into Excel formulas or putting together
entire PowerPoint presentations it's no surprise these generative AI technologies have exploded
in popularity chat GPT reached 2 million users within moments after launch when stable diffusion
2 was released developer adoption out paste what revolutionary Technologies like ethereum took
years to do in just a matter of days but this is just the beginning of the coming generative
AI Revolution gaming in particular will see an incredible unlock through generative AI games
are the most complex form of entertainment today requiring different creative assets from 2D art
3D models textures sound effects music characters animations and cinematics but generative AI
models are gunning for all of those assets open AI released Point e which generates 3D models
automatically from a picture others are automating visual effects as well as music from text prompts
by the end of 2023 it'll be possible to use text to generate any asset needed to make a game and
this will unlock creativity like we've never seen as generative AI implodes the cost of producing
game assets to nothing any franchise can convert their IP into ever complex games like a Disney
MOBA or a BTS fortnite style Survival game in the past the next big game often came from player
mods like DotA which spawned League of Legends or Daisy which spawn pubg this game modding could
also be turbocharged by generative AI with so many more games it's possible that these closed
walls between games finally starts breaking down and you see the emergence of a common identity
layer where you can Port assets between games and the games themselves will have increasingly
human-like non-playable characters that will fool us this phenomenon already occurs in games like
Bots and Call of Duty or cheater bots in chess but the next generation of these Bots will take
human-like to a whole new level startups like in World AI are making in-game characters that
can actually understand the game State and react appropriately with emotions conversations
animations imagine walking through World of Warcraft not knowing whether or not your clan
Mage is a bot visiting a town without knowing whether the local farmer is human or not in fact
AI can already play Minecraft as well as beat humans in complex games like poker go and even
Advanced negotiation games like Risk that require collaboration and even bluffing other human beings
and as these chat that's a natural language models scale entire trillion dollar Industries will be
reinvented in the most transformative shift since mobile or the cloud much of what happens in our
workplace is just pushing around language legal contracts code invoices and email this year more
and more programming tools will include automated coding Integrations like GitHub co-pilot built
on top of open AI one day soon data analysts will type in a query like you would into Google
search and have that converted into a SQL query for a bi tool companies like Jasper and copy AI
have already started automating sales emails and marketing copy core enterprise resource planning
systems help run some of the biggest trillionaire Industries for manufacturing to healthcare they're
incredibly old school but also sticky because they don't work well with any other systems a better
understanding of what data fields actually mean within Erp systems May finally allow startups
to pipe out the data instrument better decision making and unlock innovation in these historically
Tech lagging Industries within cyber security AI could conduct mock hacks and search for critical
security breaches it wouldn't be surprised if that customer support rep you speak with will
be replaced entirely with voice and NLP in the coming year Google search the greatest Monopoly
in Tech might start to be displaced by interactive language Native chat Bots and at Google itself
the Lambda chatbot actually convinced one of its users that it was sentient writing and art will
be augmented by AI if you hit writer's block AI might suggest your next sentence and one day soon
language models should be good enough to write end-to-end novels poems and songs increasingly
your health diagnosis might be done by AI rather than a doctor and you might even take legal advice
from a robo lawyer it's going to be wild to see how automation which drives labor cost to zero
might completely implode some of today's manual human driven businesses tutoring for example is
prohibitively expensive for most people but chat GPT may democratize this for the rest of the world
credit counseling is also something typically too expensive for those who need it and is often
subsidized by non-profits but the the ability of chat GPT to take input and deliver near human
quality advice changes all of this especially for things like simple Financial questions or academic
subjects for kids but the sheer power of AI and its rapid acceleration will also Force us to
contend with serious questions that includes the potential explosion of soulless chat bot driven
content online chat GPT can often sound credible but otherwise be completely devoid of fact
particularly problematic with things like medical advice and chat GPT has also become a powerful
tool for kids to cheat on homework or even write College admissions essays maybe most disturbing
AI blurs the boundaries on identity and personal digital rights as it becomes easier to impersonate
other people convincingly I am not Morgan Freeman and what you see is not real but the biggest
breakthrough of the Year might actually be in climate Tech scientists at the Lawrence Livermore
lab replicated nuclear fission the process that powers the sun they used almost 200 lasers to heat
a tiny pallet of hydrogen plasma to more than 180 million degrees Fahrenheit the hydrogen atoms then
fused together and released more energy than it took to start the reaction while the process
only lasted a hundred trillionths of a second it nonetheless has groundbreaking implications
could we one day replicate the sun's Limitless and zero-carbon source of energy here on Earth
that would be the holy grail and while it may take decades to operationalize this the journey
to doing so starts this year maybe even more unbelievable this year will continue to advance
towards the never-ending quest for humans to stay young and live forever a number of startups are
pioneering Research into how we might reverse the aging process and even deactivate death itself
through cellular reprogramming genetic editing and gene therapy anti-aging drugs and even body part
replacement and mind uploading this may sound like science fiction but it may be the most uplifting
and miraculous scientific breakthrough of 2022 a 13 year old girl with incurable leukemia was
was given T cells genetically modified by crispr technology to Target her own cancerous cells and
this therapy actually cured her there's hope this will generalize to other forms of cancer and if
it does it will be a generational Discovery the real-life cure for cancer may just be around the
corner the metaverse had a tough year even while Facebook rebranded the entire company around
the concept usage was embarrassingly low and they couldn't even get their own employees to use
it but it's actually becoming really interesting for some kinds of work while you and I might not
find it worth it to Shell out hundreds of dollars for the quest that's chump change for a medical
device company trying to educate surgeons on the complexity of the many new procedures constantly
coming to Market and for these surgeons training in a visual environment just like Pilots have been
doing for decades is a lot better than trying to read hundreds of pages of technical PDF guides
or operating on cadavers this coming year the metaverse will become the place not where you and
I meet up with friends but where highly skilled professionals get real work done if you zoom
out say civilization's greatest technological achievements have segmented our history into eras
like the stone or iron ages and the Industrial Revolution today we're entering the space age
and there's a new arms race for extraterrestrial industrial and military power we all know
companies like SpaceX are building Advanced rockets and satellites but there's the beginnings
of a bigger Intergalactic supply chain being constructed from the ground up this is everything
from manufacturing and launching on Earth to new infrastructure in space to service existing assets
in orbit and power more ambitious missions to deep space varda is even manufacturing computer chips
in space with higher precision and quality than is possible on Earth given the absence of gravity
and dust particles in the coming year a number of emerging startups will Vie to be part of the new
space industrial base but let's bring it back to Earth now what's actually going to happen in the
broader Tech ecosystem the FED will finally tame inflation this year but at the cost of higher
interest rates than we anticipated and that will hit growth areas like Tech the heaviest as
a result fundraising for startups will continue to trickle in but at much lower prices than the
first half of 2022 while a few hot businesses in Trendy areas like AI will raise at crazy multiples
the majority of startups that have enough Runway will skip fundraising altogether and wait out
the downturn the others in the messy middle will be forced to reprice in flat or down rounds in
capital intensive Industries with long Pathways to commercialization like autonomous driving Vehicles
some Robotics and other deep Tech will feel the most pain but at the end of the day there's no
bear market for Innovation it's easy to get lost in the pessimism of a year like 2022 where so
much went wrong but if you had bet on Innovation through every downturn from the 1990s oil shock
to the.com Bubble to the Great Recession you would have made out a tremendous winner Innovation
doesn't care and waits for no one it's remarkable to see Tech Innovation even transforming the way
YouTubers run their channels as entrepreneurs in fact Mr Beast may be on a path to becoming
the next Elon Musk check out this video to learn what he's doing to make that a reality
thanks so much for watching see you next time
