and finally real quick on a daily chart and I'm not going to zoom in lower than the daily this consolidation at the bottom does not look pretty to me at all and I know we rallied a little bit today and yesterday because Bitcoin is very correlated with the stock market the chart on The Daily just like the weekly is implying one final capitulation before a massive rebound if capitulation doesn't come the chart is implying [Music] all right welcome back everybody to altcoin daily my name is Austin here with Aaron joined by Tone vase former Wall Street Quant analyst and multi-decade trading veteran thanks for joining me man hey guys thanks so much for having me on absolutely um we've been following you for years uh we just got a chance to hang out with you in Dubai so it's great to see in person I just want to start out by just going over your background because there's a lot of like self-taught Traders out there but you came from Wall Street so we just go over that sure uh so my job on Wall Street wasn't actually trading which is unfortunate it would have been great to be a Trader on Wall Street who knows it could be a Wolf of Wall Street movie about me had I had a trading job on Wall Street so my job on Wall Street was building uh risk models for Traders so I still have to understand a lot about trading I don't understand every single asset class bonds stocks Futures uh FX uh you know FX options which I hated uh even like credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities like I had to new and understand them all uh and what led me to that job uh in late 2006 early 2007 I already forgot when I got hired uh was because my first attempt at not never getting a Wall Street job and just being one of these traders that you always hear about you know like sitting on a beach trading I was doing fairly well in 2004 five and then in 2006 I started shorting the real estate market because I knew it was out of control it was the home builders uh lenders I was just shorting the hell out of it because I was expecting a crash and I ran out of money and uh the housing market just wasn't crashing so one thing got a job at Bear Stearns of all places that within uh 18 months of me getting that job completely collapsed uh you know due to the real estate crash but I did learn how to trade from Traders and I learned how to trade in early 2000s uh it was around the time I was finishing up my master's degree in financial engineering and I learned from the guys that were the survivors of the.com Crash and that's what I learned from uh but you know it it takes you it takes a blow up of your portfolio to really understand risk management and then I went into the risk management space building risk models and then when I quit that uh finally in 2015 uh then I started becoming a full-time Trader again and during that time while I was working on Wall Street I was trading as best I could on the side I had a lot of restrictions on trading like when I was at Bear Stearns and JP Morgan I had to hold any assets for 30 days before I could sell it uh and uh unless it's unless I'm down 20 in the position then it's okay then then you can get out you know before your 30 days are up uh and my final job on Wall Street my last like three to four years on Wall Street I purposely took a significant cut in salary went to a much smaller Boutique uh firm for building risk models only because there was Zero restriction on my personal trading uh so that was like the one job where uh we did not have access to Insider information uh because we were building risk models that we would give to the client so I never saw any client was any hedge fund positions were at my prior jobs like Bayer JPMorgan and msci I actually had access to hedge fund Holdings so there were massive restrictions uh and regulation on me actually trading uh you know in a speculative way what is something that you think you took away from working with those Legacy systems in those Legacy systems that more Traders should understand today so the biggest uh takeaway is that it's not what you see in the movies uh I mean I in my nine years of working on Wall Street and all the people that I've met uh and we hung out you know after work this is not never once have I seen anyone you know do cocaine only took a few weeks in the crypto space uh but uh uh yeah so it's not what you see in the movies most people are older uh there's very few uh Young Bucks out there and uh when they're they are they're busting their ass working 12 hours I mean maybe they do stuff to stay away but you don't really see them they don't really party that much and uh you know it is a pretty serious environment a lot of people have families they just want to do their work uh but at the same time you see a lot of group think uh this is how you end up with these Financial crashes uh like 2008 uh because One Bank starts giving away these risky mortgages and they start making good money and other banks are looking at it and say well if we don't compete with them uh they're gonna you know eat away at our business so you end up with other Banks doing the same risky lending and risky mortgages until everyone is doing it and as long as everyone is doing it you know the music keeps playing and everything keeps going up and you start thinking that the good times will never end and then they do and then you see where the ships fall and uh whichever companies are more connected they get bailed out they get saved uh there's a combination of how much you screwed up and how connected you are like the uh the more connected you are the more you can screw up but there's always a limit uh so that's where you that's the takeaway and a lot of the phds and people uh some are open-minded and some are you know they're they don't really want to learn new stuff uh so when I started yapping about Bitcoin uh in my office in 2013 and 2014 But like everyone just looked at me like the weirdo and uh they didn't get it uh and I was telling them hey you know why don't we just start with building risk models for Bitcoin now get ahead of the curve uh it's not going anywhere uh and uh we can be the leaders in building a risk model for Bitcoin and uh no one listened to me so I just quit in 2015.
all right so before we jump into the charts and your future outlook I'm curious what's your take on bitcoin to this point like did you expect to be where we are now so uh not really uh I I expect that okay so there's two things anytime we talk about a bull market or a bear Market in any asset but specific specifically in Bitcoin there's always time and there's price from a price perspective no I did not expect to be where we are now from a Time perspective the answer is yes I just expected us to be at a higher price I did expect us to be towards the end of a bear market around this time uh maybe a little bit later like early like q1 of next year is when I expected the bear Market to end but I expected this bear Market to end closer to the 50 000 price as the ending of the bear Market because I expected the whole Market that we had from starting from let's say 2020 uh if we take the covet crash as the low point and we project that up to the first 65 000 price in April of 2021 and then in November of 2021 we slightly broke that high uh by going to 22.
I could also pull up the chart guys if it's a good time to screen share it's up to you perfect okay so I'm gonna this is a slightly different charm I'm just gonna use the monthly chart uh for Simplicity but the normal monthly chart there we go so let's assume that the bull market started off of this crash this was totally expected by me and this pullback was totally expected but was unexpected is the double top I really thought that the price of Bitcoin would pop out somewhere around the 125 000 range somewhere here at the top of this trend line but not that much later let's say December or January of 2022.
and from there I ex I would have expected a bear Market uh going down this could have gotten higher uh but I'm fairly conservative I thought 125 to 150 would have been a good top I know uh some of the fundamental analysts that I really like including Plan B and willywoo and they were looking for like 300 000 I thought that was a little bit steep uh even though uh they did convince me that my target should be a little bit higher and then I expected the bear market and I would have expected the bear Market to end around this time but at a much higher price uh probably at around that fifty thousand dollar amount so we would go up to say 150 I'm just going to use round numbers and then we would drop like 65 percent down to that fifty thousand dollar level somewhere in the vicinity of the high from March so I was really anticipating the 2013 style double top where this would be April of uh 2021 and this would be December January of 2021 and then we pulled back for about a year uh into the end of 2022 and the bottom would be at approximately where the first pop was and that first top was at 65 000.
Uh but drop us a little bit further give it some wiggle room uh so I kind of expected us to be bottoming around this time but not at prices these lows uh if this if that explanation makes sense to your question directly totally appreciate you keeping it real with us that's what we'd love to have you on but yeah actually keep the screen share because I'm you know I want to know your your next price target for Bitcoin your future outlook getting into November all right so now we're gonna zoom in a little bit into the weekly chart and uh on the weekly chart the bad news is that we have a very nasty descending triangle and it reminds me a lot of the nasty descending triangle we had uh back in uh back in the 2018 bear Market there are however some differences while in general a triangle has a way higher than 50 probability uh this descending triangle or breaking to the downside just like this ascending triangle in green has a much higher probability of rising to the upside the big differences here are that this triangle formed directly from the top and the amount of time that passed going into the edge of the triangle was not long enough for enough time pain when it comes to a bear mark uh there is yeah time and price there's price pain and there's time pain while uh at the edge of this triangle while the price pane was probably pretty bad uh we did fall uh 70 percent uh that time pain was not long enough this was less than a year uh here is the tricky part when did the bear Market start while I understand that the price of Bitcoin was higher in November the pain the time pain in hindsight really started back here in April because if you got into Bitcoin here in April you're still you you've now been waiting how much time it's been a year and a half it's been April to October of the following year so this has been a lot more time paid while at approximately equal price pay so because of the length of the time pain even though the triangle is projecting a move all the way down to the twelve thousand dollar range I don't expect it to go all the way down to 12 000 because of all the time pain we have already experienced while I still leave the possibility open that we can crash down to 14 15.
I would expect us to reverse from that area very very quickly in a similar style to 2020. as opposed to what happened in December of 2018 when we crashed in December of 2018 we did not reverse quickly it took us another six months all the way from December maybe not six months but like four months from uh the crash in November all the way to April yeah so pretty much almost pretty much six months um so I'm not expecting that if we do crash from here I expect us to reverse very very quickly the other big difference is is that the big crash that took place off the triangle in November 2018 took us to the long-term moving average which has historically been an amazing bottom for the price of Bitcoin but now we're already below that historical moving average as the bottom and while in traditional assets I would see this as a disaster and I would never consider this an asset as a buying opportunity if this was any stock if this was a government currency if this was a company uh I would never consider this a buying opportunity because a company could always go bankrupt a company stock price could always go lower uh a currency could always uh devalue against the US dollar but there are certain assets which have a fundamental value that could only reach a certain low gold is another one of these assets right there's only so low gold can go because at some point if the price of gold is super low it starts to get become very useful for the industrial industry which uh if the price of gold is high uh certain like products like cell phones are not going to use gold Parts because your cell phone would become too expensive but if the price of gold it goes a very good conductor of electricity so if the price of gold is super low suddenly it's useful uh the word uh the reason why it's called silverware is because your forks used to be made of silver but as the price of silver goes up you know it's hard to buy silver silverware but if the price of silver is very very cheap uh they have a great microbial properties and The Germ properties so there's a reason why it's called silverware all right so Bitcoin is one of those assets where it could only go so low it's not going to go to zero I am very very confident in that so uh that's the reason why in this case even though the chart looks very very ugly I know there's a low limit and finally real quick on a daily chart and I'm not going to zoom in lower than the daily this consolidation at the bottom does not look pretty to me at all and I know we rallied a little bit today and yesterday because Bitcoin is very quarterly with a stock market the chart on The Daily just like the weekly is implying one final capitulation before a massive rebound if capitulation doesn't come the chart is implied uh another three to six months of an annoying consolidation to the point where if people don't get liquidated and get frustrated and start to hate Bitcoin because it crashed they start to get frustrated and hate Bitcoin because it hasn't moved in a year and a half and it stayed within a tight range uh one more final note is that traditionally the stock market reverses in October and November and September is historically the worst month for the overall stock market so now I'm going to pull up a chart of the stock market and we're going to look at the high level monthly chart historically October November are Monster rebound mods and even more so during midterm election years because the government currently in power wants to remain in power so they do everything possible to pump the market up the fed's been raising rates uh very aggressively and right now there is a high probability that they're going to raise it another 75 percent like I'm 96 certainty that they're going to raise it 75 basis points sorry not 75 0.75 I'm gonna take the under with those odds uh to me the odds are 60 40 that they're going to raise at 75 basis points not 96 to 4.
And If the Fed does only raise interest rates by 50 basis points the markets are going to Skyrocket to the upside and from my technical analysis the MRI indicator that you see on the screen with a green arrow has uh this month as a potential high probability buying opportunity and within this spot this week is also uh an MRI buying opportunity and if I go to the daily chart if we drop another four or five days we will have a daily MRI buying opportunity it's unfortunate that Friday or sorry last Thursday broke the downwards Trend had uh we did not have this monster day last uh Thursday we would have been approaching this daily MRI buy but the monthly and the weekly are huge uh if we could only go down 10 more days we will have a monthly a day a weekly and a daily MRI buy together and the last time that happened was actually in 2009 when uh the uh the dot the housing market bubble ended so if I go to 2009 uh this is current price so if I go over to 2009 the very bottom of the market in 2009 that was the last time we had this indicator that I use in my analysis with a daily Arrow a weekly Arrow literally the next starting the next day and a monthly Arrow before so this buying opportunity came on the lowest daily price in the 08 crash and on a weekly scale in 08 it came the week after the Monday after the low in the price and on a monthly scale so it's going to be easy to go backwards on oh we're already in the 90s go to 08 and on a monthly scale the low price was the month that closed and we rebounded a few days later so so these are the kinds of technical analysis signals along with fundamental analysis that I am looking at to reverse the stock market and give Bitcoin one more boost in fact I'm very very bullish on the U.S stock market over the rest of this decade and I'm very bullish on the US dollar over this decade and then the eventual uh collapse of the United States as the world superpower uh towards the end of the decade but in the meantime while Europe is collapsing I see so much Capital flowing to the United States for safety it would continue to devalue uh the European currencies and continue to devalue Europe in general and the UK and other Western countries like Australia and New Zealand uh as the Western Nations move their Capital to the United States and then it would be an overheating of the markets in the United States uh and what happened in 1929 could happen around 2029 when there was this insane rise in the stock market before the 90 crash so I kind of see it in a similar way so you gave us a lot I want to sum it up and then I want to talk about your financial Summit which you do every year um but first to sum up everything we talked about first for the stock markets potential Mega uh buying opportunity on The Daily weekly and monthly as you mentioned potentially if the daily sort of stays low and consolidates you know this is just a bird's eye view with Bitcoin um worst case scenario 12K potentially but you don't think it'll stay there long if it goes 15K 14k more likely is that is that fair yeah and uh and if that happens I think it would rebound very very quickly and then go up um uh either way I am expecting the price of Bitcoin early next year uh to be above 20 000 and never go below 20 000 ever again that's my expectation the the biggest thing I heard when like watching Traders or just hearing Traders talk to themselves is trading isn't about being right it's about making money meaning that it's all about self-adjusting so the biggest thing is as new data comes in just keep you know adjusting uh based on however much data you have so I want to have you back tone at the end of the year to revisit some of these charts but let's talk about the financial Summit what is it sure I'll go back on screen share and mention it real quick so the inspiration for this came uh from to twofold uh after I put my I put Wall Street uh to be a Trader Let me refresh the website so this little video Place uh uh what I quit Wall Street uh to be a Trader you know I dreamed the life you know no more bosses you know you can do whatever you want you can trade from the beach you can trade from anywhere in reality you're trading from you know a windowless room with a bunch of monitors that are blocking your window if you have it and uh I found uh my passion more so in traveling the world and educating about Bitcoin and in order to support that lifestyle because no one's going to pay you to travel I mean I'm not undressed in monopolis that's able to charge you know uh for speaking engagements uh I had to start teaching people how to be responsible Traders so I've taught technical analysis I was teaching risk management things like that as I traveled around and I taught many people how to trade and some of those people were hitting me up in order for me to connect them with like hedge funds and other money managers uh but I it wasn't easy for me to do I wanted to start calling and trying to find out who the hedge funds are and then at the same time I had a couple of friends that were running funds and they were really looking for new Traders and new ideas to work with uh and around that time I went on this vacation in Thailand and I invited a couple of Trader friends one of them was actually Willy Wu and we just found out in this like three four bedroom Villa and just did a bunch of videos about the markets and just talked about the markets all day and I said you know what why don't I just connect everybody why don't I just put together an event in some beautiful destination uh bring a bunch of Traders try to bring money managers try to bring VCS uh try to bring uh people that even know how to make money off of nfts know how to make money off of mining uh yep all these people to get traditional markets uh crypto markets and network for five days with about 50 people a lot of people bring their wife girlfriends some people bring the kids and we've done this event now in Bali uh in uh Russell kaima uiee right next to Dubai in the desert uh I try to find we have to go to the desert because if we do it in the middle of Dubai everyone's gonna go out and party at night they're not gonna work with each other we did it in Dominican Republic went in a castle and uh here we're back in Bali this is the resort you see it right there we have the description of the event we have YouTube videos slightly longer than the one you guys just saw on screen share uh we have testimonial videos and it's just a great time uh we have I have to put more note about it we usually don't make the fnd list public because honestly it doesn't matter this is an expensive event it's nine thousand dollars everything's included except the flight if you were to take a vacation in this place it would cost you about the same amount of money but you get to spend it with good people and just because they're not big names doesn't mean they're not successful uh some of the best people that have come to these events you would have never met them before and they run these multi-million dollar companies and some people that made their money in traditional business want to learn how to invest better people that made their money in trading want to learn how to invest better I lost a lot of money investing in companies after making money in trade that's the skills that I need and I love talking talking to those people how do you manage a big business and we get together and we just talk about all this stuff we also have a trading contest six hours see we can make the most money uh uh in up to 20x leverage trading and I came in second place last time in August by making eight percent in six hours and I got beat by my friend who made ten percent uh so this is the kind of funnel we have you know there's also poker nights and uh group dinners uh so just a lot of fun for Traders and all things investing I'm gonna end after the interview a short piece of the trailer but all the links the financial Summit View tone are down below I encourage the audience to check it out but just final thoughts for the audience uh final thoughts are um understand the difference between investing and trading uh and the traditional uh Market space uh you can invest in an index like the S P 500 you can invest in some stocks if you've done the research and you believe these stocks are forward-looking uh but you're not going to invest in a penny stock you're not going to invest in a stock that's three cents uh and in the crypto space the only investment grade crypto to me is Bitcoin and everything else is speculative trading there's nothing wrong with speculative trading uh but understand that ethereum may not be the asset to hold for the next decade but I believe that Bitcoin is uh ethereum might be the closest out of the rest to hold for a decade but I think of everything in the crypto space other than Bitcoin as a centralized company with a CEO and a board of directors so to me ethereum has a lot more in common with Amazon and they're competing with Amazon's AWS as a centralized web service and there's nothing wrong with that then Bitcoin it's not competing with Bitcoin and uh and Bitcoin is different and a unique asset like the internet itself so as long as you understand the difference between trading uh and speculation versus true investment uh you'll be fine and also if you are gonna speculate on bitcoin and the only reason you're buying Bitcoin is to get rich you will always be disappointed because either you're gonna sell it too soon or you're going to get in on the hype cycle and watch it go down and price not realizing how important it is for the long term so do as much research as you can and then make your own decisions for your finances and don't blame the people especially if they're giving you free advice [Music]
